I love the Vorm-inator
Our first-ever fantasy manager’s dilemma was back in October: It was a high profile dilemma that pitted transferring in either Gerrard or VDV, and after we chose VDV, he went on to score 2 goals and pick up the maximum 3 fantasy bonus points in his very next game – finishing with 15 points. 1-for-1. Not bad… A great decision.
Let’s take a look at a much lower profile fantasy manager’s dilemma this time around. Instead of looking at who to transfer, let’s look at who we should place in our starting lineup this weekend. One of the most important aspects of fantasy football is not just acquiring the right players, but knowing when to sit and start those fringe players. Radek Cerny is QPR’s new stand-in goalkeeper, with both Paddy Kenny and Brian Murphy out injured. Cerny is owned by 2% of fantasy managers and is priced at 4M – certainly falling into the ‘fringe’ category.
Michel Vorm is the success story of the fantasy season thus far. Swansea’s in-form #1 ‘keeper costs 4.7M (he started at 4.0M) and leads all goalkeepers in scoring. The dilemma would seem almost nonexistent when you look at Vorm’s form – 2 clean sheets in his last 3 games, including one at Anfield.
But let’s take a deeper look at the statistics: Vorm only has one clean sheet on the road this season (the aforementioned Anfield match). He conceded 4 at Manchester City, 4 at Chelsea, 3 at Norwich, 2 at Wolves, and 1 at Arsenal. 14 goals in 5 matches. Nearly 3 goals a game conceded on the road. Yikes. That’s the bad news.
The good news? Swansea travel to take on Blackburn – a side in poor form sitting in 20th position in the league. Relegation fodder. Last place. Foot of the table. Can’t really get a better matchup, can you?
Actually, you can. Blackburn have been poor, but they’ve been poor defensively and not necessarily in attack. They’ve scored 17 goals this season – the same amount as 6th place Liverpool and one more than 8th place Aston Villa. Yakubu is in form and Gamst Pederson is always a threat… Will Vorm be able to keep that out?
The positives for Vorm – his track record, great form, and the potential for save points, if not a clean sheet. A predicted score range of 2-4 points should be expected. The negatives? Swansea’s poor away record and Blackburn’s decent goalscoring form.
Now let’s take a look at Radek Cerny – a name not certainly uttered too frequently in fantasy footie circles. The former Czech international gets the nod as West Brom come to visit. West Brom have been blanked twice on their travels this season – 0-3 at Arsenal and 0-3 at Swansea. They’ve scored in every other away game. Morale can’t be high after a 1-3 home loss against Tottenham, and they haven’t had a good record traveling to London. That’s the good news for Cerny. The bad news? QPR conceded 3 at home last time out against Manchester City and have kept just 2 home clean sheets this season.
It just seems all too close to call for me. Vorm is in amazing form and is clearly the better player, but Cerny has a home matchup against goal-shy opposition. Toss-up.
In this case, Vorm’s potential for saves may just win out slightly. He has the ability to do something special (a penalty save? A 9 save day for 3 extra points?) and so let’s go against the grain and take the Vorm-inator on the road at Blackburn since we have to make a choice. Though that choice is emotional… The logic in the situation says Cerny all the way.
Verdict: PUSH
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this will only complicate the issue. if i decide (which…i pretty much have) to stick with vorm when his fixtures are at least remotley friendly…who do i keep as a back up goalie?
any advice?
i obviously dont want…say…DdG (i even feel guilty wasting away the funds spent on givem) sitting on the bench on the weeks that vorm is gonna play big, but i dont want to have to waste my transfer any given week that swans play chelsea, city, united etc on a goalie.
If you want to save money you could be bold and go for the Swansea backup keeper at 3.9. This would free up funds for a more expensive option in midfield and attack.
This goes against the policy of rotating goalkeepers, but with the lack of clean sheets this season it could be a viable option.
I have Vorm and Given so I’m also going for Vorm this Gameweek instead of Given at home vs. Manchester United.
Vorm was always going to concede at least 2 goals. think he’ll get a clean sheet v fulham next though.