Your surprise Golden Boot winner?
We continue our World Cup Fantasy vs Reality series to uncover hidden gems for your fantasy footie lineups by looking at the bookmaker odds, as well as offering our top tips on these odds as we prepare for kick-off in South Africa.
Let’s take a look at one of the most sacred awards in international football: The Golden Boot. Miroslav Klose won it in 2006 with 5 goals for Germany while (the fat) Ronaldo took the title back in 2002 – scoring a whopping 8 goals. Klose scored 5 goals in 2002 as well, picking up the Silver Shoe.
So, can Klose score 5 goals again this World Cup – providing fantasy rewards for managers who select him? Is he worth a punt at 33-to-1: a major dark-horse in Golden Boot betting at online sportsbooks?
I don’t think so. Klose has a great international scoring record but has not been a regular starter with German champions Bayern Munich this season and should not be considering a fantasy World Cup selection despite his big name. Managers should avoid Klose and look elsewhere…
The top three Golden Boot contenders are David Villa, Lionel Messi, and Wayne Rooney – who all come in with odds about 9-to-1. All three are superb fantasy football selections, but if you are looking for a darkhorse who may win the Golden Boot and win you some cash in the process – look down the list a bit further at Brazil’s Luis Fabiano.
Fabiano comes in at 12-to-1 and could be a superb fantasy footie selection and Golden Boot punt in South Africa.
The Brazilian’s international scoring record is amazing – 25 goals in 36 matches – and while Villa, Messi, and Rooney (and even Fernando Torres) may be the more popular selections – Fabiano could surprise them all.
There you have it. Luis Fabiano. My outside bet for the Golden Boot and a productive fantasy footie World Cup.
There is plenty of World Cup wagering at establishments like the Europa Casino and in Las Vegas casinos around the world’s biggest sporting event- and Fabiano at 12-to-1 looks like a superb option to me.
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Fabiano's record is amazing and he has all that it takes to arrive at a big tally. The group stages do look more favorable for the golden boot favorites.
Look at goals conceeded in the final round of qualifying (does not include playoffs):
Group B (Messi):
Nigeria 4 in 6
South Korea 3 in 6
Greece 10 in 10
Mean = .77 goals/match
Group C (Rooney):
Algeria 4 in 6
Slovenia 4 in 10
USA 3 in 6
Mean = .5 goals/match
Group G (Fabiano):
Ivory Coast 4 in 6
North Korea 0 in 6
Portugal 5 in 10
Mean = .41 goals/match
Group H (Villa):
Switzerland 8 in 10
Honduras 5 in 6
Chile 22 in 18
Mean = 1.0 goals/match
While statistics don't tell the whole story, it would be easy to point to David Villa as having the easiest group in which to rack up a huge goal count. Anyone who has read a newspaper since the draw would know that Brazil are in the group of death and have been more disciplined under Dunga, so Fabiano may not have as easy a path as he'd like.
What about blog stud RVP???
Excellent analysis, as always.
Switzerland didn't concede a single goal in the 2006 World Cup (an amazing accomplishment) but Spain should cut them open in Group H….
Villa is hampered a bit by Torres because in a 3-0 dominant win they may each get 1, whereas if Brazil only beats Portugal 1-0, and Fabiano scores the only goal – he's still "tied" with Torres and Villa.
I guess Brazil's modern team under dunga is an athletic counter-attack team that really goes head on with Kaka and Fabiano and they play with such confidence that I'd like to bet on Fabiano (for his odds).
RVP is another excellent choice if you belive (like I do) that the Dutch can make a long run… Again – does he take set pieces or penalties? Or does Van der Vaart or Sneijder or even Robben or Kuyt??? Who knows.. I'd love to know who is taking PKs and free kicks in practice for the Netherlands… Whoever is could be a darkhorse candidate for the Golden Boot as well.